British scientists have conducted a study suggesting that climate change caused by human activity may have caused a warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius before the end of 2023 compared to the years before 1700. Using data from the Antarctic ice core over the last two millennia, the researchers explain that the Earth may be closer to reaching the 1.5-degree warming limit than previously thought.
Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to preventing global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. However, this study highlights that emissions and the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide were increasing long before this period.
The researchers recalibrate the relationship between global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 trends, extending their analysis back 2000 years. According to the study's authors, this approach has allowed for a more accurate estimate of human-induced warming, concluding that a warming of around 1.49 degrees has been reached in 2023.
Using a broader range of data has allowed scientists to assert that their estimate of warming is 30% more accurate than previous ones based on other methods. Although they acknowledge that their model does not account for all factors influencing temperature trends, the researchers believe this approach will significantly improve climate negotiations.
In the words of Andrew Jarvis, one of the study's authors, this new method provides a more robust and transparent way to measure human-induced warming, which is crucial in the fight against climate change.
